Shchegoleva N. V.


Deterioration of road conditions is the main of the main reasons for the increase in the rate of accidents in Russia. Domestic and foreign research scientists showed the share of road conditions for 30 to 70% of all traffic accidents accident. Today accidents are one of the leading causes of death , injury and disability worldwide. Annually as a result of accidents on the roads , 1.3 million people die and get injured from 20 to 50 million people . Road traffic injuries are among the top three causes of death for people between the ages of 5 and 44 years [3].
International organizations are constantly address the issue of road safety and as a consequence of reduction of accidents . Experts from the World Health Organization (WHO) equate the problem to the threat of a global epidemic and give disappointing forecasts for the future. It is projected that by 2030 road traffic injuries will be the fifth leading cause of death worldwide, if urgent measures are not taken [3]. In 2009 Moscow hosted the First Global Ministerial Conference on Road Safety. It was attended by representatives from more than 150 countries , 20 government and 80 non-governmental organizations [1].
The result of the conference was the adoption of the Moscow Declaration, in which the participants appealed to the UN General Assembly declared the period 2011 - 2020's "Decade of Action for Road Safety."
If governments around the world do not develop a consolidated policy to change the status quo, the 2020 death in a traffic accident will be one of the leading causes of death in the world.
Accounting for the effects of adverse road conditions to increase the accident requires a detailed study of the causes that determine the safe movement of vehicles. Full-scale survey of highways in operation showed that one of the reasons for the deterioration of road conditions is their low level of construction quality, leading to significant heterogeneity parameters of geometric elements. For example, frequently within the circular radius of the curve varies in 5 - 10 times. Such deviations from the project lead to significant fluctuations in the visibility of the road surface and an oncoming car on convex curves, increase the risk of transverse stability on horizontal curves. Eliminating hazardous areas caused by defective construction, achieved by correcting the parameters of geometric elements of the road during major repairs or reconstruction.
In article are described an approach to the calculation of the geometric parameters of the reconstructed road with at net of the risk that the car in a traffic accident because of their imperfections.

Keywords: expectation, reconstruction, risk, standard deviation accident, traffic accident, traffic safety, аварийность, безопасность движения, дорожно-транспортное происшествие, математическое ожидание, реконструкция, риск, среднее квадратическое отклонение